We were fortunate enough to be invited to a lunch with Paul Brewbaker, Chief Economist for Bank Of Hawaii. in his usual engaging fashion, Brewbaker defended his views on a variety of subjects. Here are some of his takes:

Affordable Housing Bill on Maui will have a significant negative impact on Maui development if it is actually enforced as is. His sense is that there is a great deal of flexibility there…Today’s Fed announcement showed the Fed is less comfortable with the housing market…we are NOT going to have a recession…long term inflation risk is very low and that is the reason for the flat yield curve…housing in Hawaii will remain relatively flat for five years…Maui is now cheaper than parts of California, usually the reverse is true, therefore Maui values are “secure”…tourism is not growing because politically we don’t want it to and it is very difficult to build hotels…Japanese tourism will continue to fall because most Japanese tourism is large groups but hotels are not willing to book hotel rooms forward at today’s rates with room rates going up every year so the Japanes are going elsewhere…fractional ownership will continue to boom…China will ultimately “discover” Hawaii, but a lot has to happen first.

Of course this is the briefest of summaries. If you’d like more information, contact us.